Regarding whether a manadrin can survive the winter?
Assuming the watr doesn't freeze and he moves on... yes definitely.
There's a colony in Lawiensky Park in warsaw, Poland that survives, and grows, despite winters of -20C at times.
And I've been to Northern China. unless you come from Canada, which of course most of you do, (but we Western Europeans are less hardy) you wouldn't believe how cold it is there in winter.
We get Mandarins on our local pond in the UK. The British feral population now represents a significant percentage of the world's birds. They are fabulous birds and the Chinese Manadrin costume with the 'wings' at the back of the belt and the high collars was designed to look like the bird. Hence its a bird with a touch of regal history.